撰写People’s Daily Online, Beijing, February 2 (Reporter Qiao Xuefeng) The reporter learned from the Ministry of Transport that in order to let everyone go home safely and happily for the New Year. The Highway Bureau of the Ministry of Transport and the Road Network Center of the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Analysis Report on the Operation of the National Highway Network in Spring Festival travel rush in 2018" to ensure the unimpeded travel of ordinary people during Spring Festival travel rush.
In 2018, Spring Festival travel rush will last for 40 days from February 1st to March 12th, including 7 days of Spring Festival holiday. According to the report, the travel demand in Spring Festival travel rush is relatively strong, and the traffic volume of the national highway network is expected to increase by 4%-6%. In 2018, Spring Festival travel rush is expected to have a small peak for returning home before the Spring Festival (the 24th and 25th of the twelfth lunar month), and the last day of the Spring Festival holiday (the 6th day of the first lunar month) will be the peak for the whole Spring Festival travel rush period, and there will be two small peaks for returning after the Spring Festival (the 9th and 10th days of the first lunar month, and the 16th and 17th of the first lunar month).
The traffic volume in East China and South China is relatively large, and the traffic volume on New Year’s Eve is the lowest.
The report predicts that the road sections with large traffic volume during Spring Festival travel rush will be concentrated and the distribution will be normalized, mainly concentrated in the trunk highways in East China and South China and the road sections around the popular scenic spots during the Spring Festival. The traffic flow is expected to be dominated by passenger cars, and the traffic volume of trucks is lower than normal during Spring Festival travel rush, especially during the Spring Festival. During the return journey in the late Spring Festival, it is expected that the expressways around large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai and Shenzhen will be prone to congestion.
According to the changing trend of Spring Festival travel rush’s national highway network traffic flow in 2018, the report divides Spring Festival travel rush into four stages.
The first stage: from February 1 to February 10 (the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month), due to the scattered time of returning home during the Spring Festival, it is expected that there will be no obvious peak traffic before the holiday, but the overall level is slightly higher than the normal working day, among which the 24th and 25th days of the twelfth lunar month are the small peaks for returning home.
The second stage: from February 11th to February 14th (the 29th day of the twelfth lunar month), the return traffic of enterprises and institutions became the main force, the volume of truck trips decreased day by day, the road network operating environment was relatively simple, and the overall operating pressure decreased. By the 14th, most of the return traffic completed the return journey.
The third stage: from February 15th (New Year’s Eve) to February 25th (the 10th day of the first month), the traffic flow showed a trend of "low opening and high going, showing double peaks", and the traffic flow decreased to the lowest value during Spring Festival travel rush on February 15th (New Year’s Eve). From the 17th (the second day) to the 19th (the fourth day), short trips to visit relatives and friends were the main ones, with concentrated return trips on February 20th (the fifth day) and 21st (the sixth day), with the first return peak on the sixth day of the first month. Affected by the adjustment, the ninth day of the first month and the tenth day of the first month on the first weekend after the Spring Festival are the second small return peaks.
The fourth stage is from February 26th (the 11th day of the first month) to March 12th. After the Lantern Festival, the 16th and 17th days of the first month are the third small return peak.
During the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the change trend of expressway traffic volume in China was basically the same. The report predicts that the first small return peak will be ushered in on the 24th and 25th of the twelfth lunar month, with the lowest traffic volume on New Year’s Eve and the first return peak on the 6th day of the first month. On the ninth day of the first month and the tenth day of the first month, the second and third return peaks were ushered in.
During the Spring Festival, the traffic volume of 10 national important corridors (G1 Jingha Expressway, G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, G3 Jingtai Expressway, G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, G6 Beijing-Tibet Expressway, G15 Shenhai Expressway, G18 Rongwu Expressway, G20 Qingyin Expressway, G50 Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway and G60 Shanghai-Kunming Expressway) changed from low to high, and the traffic volume gradually increased from the second day. Among them, the proportion of passenger cars is low at both ends of the holiday and high in the middle, which is basically stable at more than 80%. During the Spring Festival holiday, the morning peak of traffic flow of ten important passages is at 10: 00 -11: 00, and the evening peak is at 15: 00 -16: 00, in which the morning peak is higher in the first four days of the holiday and the evening peak is higher in the last three days, which is consistent with the travel rules of traveling in the early stage of the holiday and returning to work in the late stage of the holiday.
In addition, the traffic of national and provincial trunk highways changes smoothly during the whole period of Spring Festival travel rush, except for the obvious decrease around New Year’s Eve, the traffic at other times is not much different from that at Pingfeng.
During the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the freight traffic volume was lower than the normal level and reached the lowest level during the Spring Festival. During Spring Festival travel rush, the freight flow was lower than the normal level. From the first day in Spring Festival travel rush, the freight flow continued to decrease, reaching a minimum on the first day of the Lunar New Year. From the second day of the first month, the freight flow has gradually picked up.
From the spatial distribution of traffic flow, the sections with large traffic flow are concentrated in the main expressways in East China and South China. G15 Shenhai Expressway Shanghai Section, Zhejiang Section and Guangdong Section, G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway Jiangsu Section, G42 Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway Jiangsu Section, G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway Hunan Section, S20 Shanghai Outer Ring Expressway, S81 Guangzhou Ring Expressway and G1501 Guangzhou Ring Expressway, etc. It is estimated that the daily average traffic volume will reach 50,000 vehicles.
In addition, local sections of highways in and out of big cities, urban airport expressways and roads leading to popular scenic spots are also sections with concentrated traffic flow.
It is estimated that during the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the sections with large truck traffic will be concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The sections with large traffic include: Wuxi section of G1 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, Changzhou section and Wuxi section of G42 Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway, Guangzhou section and Dongguan section of G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, Guangzhou section of G35 Jiguang Expressway, Guangzhou section of G4W2 Xuguang Expressway, Dongguan section of G9411 Guanfo Expressway, Guangzhou section of S4 South China Expressway and Dongguan section of S20 Chaowan Expressway.
The most traffic jams during the Spring Festival holiday are mainly concentrated in economically developed areas.
According to the report, the time distribution of traffic congestion in Spring Festival travel rush is concentrated on holiday return, and the spatial distribution is concentrated on the expressway network around large and medium-sized cities.
The report predicts that during the period of Spring Festival travel rush in 2018, the traffic congestion state of the national expressway network will go through "four stages", showing the form of "two liters and two drops":
The first stage: the steady rise from February 1 to 10 (the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month). Among them, the first wave of returning home before the festival appeared on February 10 (the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month).
The second stage: the gradual decline from 11th to 15th (New Year’s Eve).
The third stage: the rapid rebound from 16th to 21st and the gradual slowdown after 22nd. On the 21st (sixth day), due to the centralized return trip, the road network congestion reached its peak.
The fourth stage: The second and third small peaks will appear on the first weekend after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24th and 25th) and the weekend after the Lantern Festival (March 3rd and 4th).
The report also pointed out that during the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the trend of traffic congestion on national and provincial trunk lines was relatively stable, and there was no obvious congestion peak at other times except for the obvious relief around New Year’s Eve. The trend of congestion change between national road network and expressway is basically the same, showing four stages with the 25th of twelfth lunar month, New Year’s Eve and the 6th day of the first month as the key nodes, but the congestion degree is lighter than that of expressway, and the overall operation efficiency is higher.
The report predicts that the economically developed areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Chengdu-Chongqing are concentrated areas where traffic jams are likely to occur. It is predicted that the congestion degree of large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Nanjing, Dongguan and Hangzhou and their surrounding expressways will be high, including Beijing section of G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, Dongguan section of G9411 Guanfo Expressway, Chongqing section of G85 Chongqing-Kunming Expressway.
The report also pointed out that North China is a concentrated area of toll stations that are prone to congestion. Based on the historical data and possible weather environment, it is estimated that during the Spring Festival holiday, the traffic operation pressure of Beijing Lianhuatan Toll Station and Hohhot 17-ditch Toll Station will be high, which is prone to congestion and slow down. It is necessary to do a good job in operation guarantee and focus on monitoring.
In addition to highways and toll stations around large and medium-sized cities, local sections of urban airports, railway stations and popular scenic spots may also become congested areas.
During the period of Spring Festival travel rush, the national weather has little influence on highway travel.
According to the forecast of China Meteorological Bureau, during the period of Spring Festival travel rush (from February 1 to March 12), the weather and climate conditions in the whole country have little influence on road trips, but disastrous weather such as staged and local freezing rain and snow and low visibility are likely to cause road traffic jams and traffic safety accidents.
Staged snowfall and freezing weather may occur in eastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, northern Jilin and northern Xinjiang. Staged rain and snow weather may occur in the southeastern part of Northwest China, the western part of Huanghuai, Jianghan, the southern part of Southwest China and the western part of South China. There may be heavy fog and local fog in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, so it is necessary to guard against the possible impact of adverse weather in these areas on transportation.
It is expected that there will be more freezing rain and snow in eastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, northern Jilin, northern Xinjiang and other places. There is a high risk of road snow and road icing on expressways such as G1 Jingha Expressway, G11 Heda Expressway, G25 Changshen Expressway, G30 Lianhuo Expressway and G40 Hushan Expressway, so vehicles need to slow down.
It is estimated that G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, G3 Beijing-Taiwan Expressway, G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, G45 Daguang Expressway and G55 Erguang Expressway in North China, and some sections of G25 Changshen Expressway, G42 Hurong Expressway and G50 Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway in Jianghuai and Sichuan may have low visibility due to heavy fog, so the risk of vehicle detention is high.
The G20 Qingyin Expressway, G22 Qinglan Expressway and G70 Fuyin Expressway in Shaanxi, G5 Jingkun Expressway, G75 Lanhai Expressway and G85 Chongqing-Kunming Expressway in Sichuan, and G76 Xiarong Expressway in Jiangxi are at higher risk of being affected by the fog.